Fig. 3

Reported and forecasted trends in under-five mortality across EAC (UNICEF reported estimates, 2000–2017, and forecasted estimates, 2018–2030). We forecasted under-five mortality trends in EAC from 2018 to 2030 using UNICEF reported under-five mortality from 2000 to 2017 and autoregressive integrated moving average time series approach. Based on our forecasted estimates, Rwanda and Uganda would meet the SDG target for under-five mortality of at least as low as 25 per 1000 live births