Table 3 Estimated relative reductions of MMR by 2030 in four scenarios by region among 126 LMICs
Scenario 0 (No scale-up) | Scenario 1 (Modest scale-up) | Scenario 2 (Substantial scale-up) | Scenario 3 (Universal coverage) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MMR | MMR (80%UI) | Reduction (%) | MMR (80%UI) | Reduction (%) | MMR (80%UI) | Reduction (%) | |
Worldwide | 200 | 172.05 (117.62, 262.87) | 13.81 | 139.84 (95.60, 213.52) | 27.39 | 98.59 (67.82, 149.68) | 42.53 |
Low-income countries | 456 | 396.89 (263.17, 616.66) | 13.39 | 318.66 (211.11, 495.22) | 30.52 | 198.08 (132.46, 305.06) | 55.04 |
Lower middle-income countries | 202 | 170.89 (119.38, 258.71) | 15.18 | 137.51 (96.00, 208.05) | 30.78 | 103.07 (71.67, 156.14) | 46.16 |
Upper middle-income countries | 65 | 56.29 (40.17, 83.05) | 12.65 | 49.19 (35.13, 72.50) | 22.37 | 42.39 (30.34, 62.42) | 32.40 |
African Region | 398 | 343.87 (238.22, 517.01) | 13.72 | 277.84 (192.41, 417.64) | 29.75 | 190.58 (132.47, 285.23) | 48.83 |
Low-income countries | 501 | 435.59 (296.28, 660.19) | 13.71 | 349.59 (237.78, 529.75) | 31.02 | 218.10 (149.57, 327.60) | 55.26 |
Lower middle-income countries | 376 | 321.23 (229.23, 474.33) | 14.26 | 259.56 (185.02, 383.11) | 30.62 | 194.31 (137.84, 287.10) | 47.18 |
Upper middle-income countries | 161 | 140.05 (95.45, 217.66) | 12.39 | 119.85 (81.77, 186.09) | 23.91 | 102.36 (69.84, 159.37) | 34.70 |
Region of the Americas | 87 | 74.54 (56.31, 101.87) | 12.64 | 63.09 (47.90, 85.57) | 23.56 | 49.83 (38.33, 66.37) | 36.84 |
Lower middle-income countries | 165 | 136.88 (94.04, 211.54) | 16.62 | 103.60 (71.29, 159.65) | 33.91 | 64.47 (44.55, 98.61) | 53.18 |
Upper middle-income countries | 69 | 60.69 (47.93, 77.50) | 11.76 | 54.09 (42.70, 69.11) | 21.26 | 46.58 (36.95, 59.20) | 33.20 |
South-East Asia Region | 113 | 93.89 (66.21, 143.41) | 15.37 | 76.37 (53.83, 116.58) | 29.73 | 60.20 (42.75, 90.98) | 43.76 |
Low-income countries | 107 | 91.37 (39.28, 212.63) | 14.61 | 75.36 (32.40, 175.37) | 29.57 | 48.15 (20.70, 112.05) | 55.00 |
Lower middle-income countries | 125 | 104.61 (77.04, 150.41) | 15.41 | 85.09 (62.63, 122.31) | 30.51 | 67.13 (49.42, 96.55) | 45.65 |
Upper middle-income countries | 86 | 69.73 (49.91, 104.01) | 15.54 | 56.36 (40.44, 83.61) | 27.96 | 48.04 (34.53, 70.94) | 35.60 |
European Region | 17 | 15.22 (10.50, 22.52) | 13.39 | 13.53 (9.35, 20.00) | 22.90 | 12.03 (8.34, 17.80) | 30.03 |
Lower middle-income countries | 32 | 27.73 (19.78, 40.19) | 14.66 | 23.05 (16.53, 33.25) | 29.79 | 19.60 (14.06, 28.24) | 40.90 |
Upper middle-income countries | 14 | 12.54 (8.51, 18.73) | 13.11 | 11.49 (7.82, 17.16) | 21.43 | 10.41 (7.11, 15.56) | 27.70 |
Eastern Mediterranean Region | 156 | 136.55 (79.67, 237.52) | 11.48 | 111.48 (64.73, 194.35) | 24.59 | 74.46 (43.73, 129.14) | 42.48 |
Low-income countries | 345 | 303.23 (175.51, 523.34) | 11.88 | 243.57 (140.18, 421.07) | 28.69 | 147.96 (86.41, 253.51) | 54.18 |
Lower middle-income countries | 75 | 64.55 (39.05, 112.18) | 11.79 | 54.12 (32.63, 94.26) | 23.40 | 43.38 (25.97, 75.98) | 37.20 |
Upper middle-income countries | 57 | 50.78 (28.23, 95.40) | 9.97 | 44.32 (24.60, 83.40) | 20.93 | 34.86 (19.97, 63.60) | 37.08 |
Western Pacific Region | 89 | 72.50 (45.32, 123.61) | 17.59 | 58.35 (36.44, 99.68) | 32.26 | 46.15 (28.58, 79.64) | 45.33 |
Lower middle-income countries | 109 | 88.28 (55.57, 148.06) | 18.98 | 69.13 (43.56, 115.80) | 36.19 | 52.21 (32.85, 87.65) | 50.62 |
Upper middle-income countries | 49 | 40.94 (24.81, 74.69) | 14.81 | 36.80 (22.19, 67.44) | 24.38 | 34.03 (20.02, 63.61) | 34.74 |